CIPR Excellence Awards 2005 - case study
 

		Entry title: Missing People Means Missing Resources
		Company: Westminster CC
		Client: In-house
		Category: Public Affairs

“High profile reporting of recent incidents such as RPI and Westminster Census data is seen to have been publicised in the media to such an extent that scepticism in data collection is seen as rife.”
Statistics Commission: Public Confidence in Official Statistics November 2004

Background

The Westminster Council campaign, Missing People Means Missing Resources, changed how future national population estimates will be conducted and launched a wider debate on public confidence in official statistics and retrieved 10% of Westminster’s population. This resulted in an increase in government grant of £20million per annum from September 2004.

Westminster faced a 26% reduction (64,000 people) to its population according to the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) 2001 Census. However, local data such as school rolls and housing stock pointed to a growth, not diminution, in population.

As central government grant is allocated in part per-capita, the Council faced a reduction in funding of over £50million a year. “The 2001 Census undercount posed the biggest single financial threat in the Council’s history.” Kit Malthouse, Deputy Leader, Westminster City Council.

The two-year campaign changed government policy and demonstrably influenced the future of national statistics.

Objectives

• To force a retrospective increase to the 2001 Census for Westminster
• To secure inclusion of new population estimate in government grant calculation for 2004/5
• To secure a review of current Census methodology

Planning & implementation

Westminster implemented an integrated communications and public affairs strategy built on six strands:

1. An unimpeachable statistical case
A commissioned MORI population survey was compared against other data sources. Technical submissions, independent research from four statistics and demographics experts and an acclaimed Finance Overview and Scrutiny hearing built an unassailable case against the 2001 Census.

2. Win the public debate to undermine 2001 Census through a high profile media campaign
Ninety five pieces of coverage in national, regional press and broadcast culminated in a set piece debate between Kit Malthouse, Deputy Leader WCC and John Pullinger, Executive Director ONS, on the Today programme. The media campaign opened doors and minds in Parliament and the Statistics Commission.

3. Parliamentary campaign to add pressure to ONS from central government
Fifteen Parliamentary questions tabled by local MPs supplemented briefings to Ministers including the Deputy Prime Minister and Treasury and ODPM Select Committees. These helped secure Ministerial meetings with Ruth Kelly (Treasury) and Nick Raynsford (ODPM) at which assurances were given to review retrospectively government funding resulting from a possible ONS volte face.

4. Influence Statistics Commission to find in favour of the Council
Support of the independent Commission was seen as crucial to the success of the campaign. Technical submissions and an invitation to give evidence at Westminster’s Overview and Scrutiny hearing triggered the Commission to conduct a specific investigation into Westminster’s case: The 2001Census in Westminster.

5. Marketing campaign to Westminster residents increasing pressure from the grass roots
Direct mail sent to every resident with the 2003 electoral register solicited evidence of systematic undercounting during the Census. Articles in the Council magazine and an internal communication campaign uncovered five enumerators employed by the ONS during the 2001 Census who gave evidence of undercounting.

“Until I received notification from Westminster City Council that they were investigating the Census I was not aware of its importance in relation to public finance and public funding.”
Tristan Lawsmith, enumerator employed by ONS during 2001 Census count

After eight-months of the integrated Parliamentary, marketing and media campaign the ONS capitulated and agreed to hold an independent data matching exercise. This found overwhelming evidence in favour of Westminster’s case resulting in the ONS agreeing to a 10% increase to population.

Evaluation & measurement

Objective: To force a retrospective increase to the 2001 Census for Westminster’s population

Starting position: 2001 census reduced population by 26% (64,000 people)

Outcome: ONS increased Westminster’s population by 10% (17,500 people) to 214,400 matching MORI study commissioned by WCC

“In what often appeared to be a personal spat between Westminster City Council and national statistician, Len Cook, the ONS was forced to admit that some of their data was wrong.” Local Government Chronicle, 27 August 2004

Objective: To secure inclusion of new population estimate for government grant calculation for 2004/5

Starting position: 2001 Census reduces Council grant allocation by estimated £50million per annum

Outcome: Revised population estimate increased grant by £20million per annum. Westminster’s increase affected grant distribution to all other 376 local authorities

Objective: To seek government review of current methodology of population estimates to include Local Authority data

Starting position: “We are confident that the Census figures provided the most accurate estimate of the population nationally and in Westminster…”
Len Cook, National Statistician, in letter to Peter Rogers, WCC CEO, 11 October 2002

“ONS are confident that the approach taken for the 2001 Census provides the most accurate evidence of the population both nationally and for each of the 376 local authorities in England and Wales.”
Nick Raynsford, ODPM in a letter to Simon Milton, Leader WCC, 10 February 2003

Outcome: “The 2011 Census will need to be conducted differently from that in 2001.”

“To the extent that these developments prove successful, the central role of decennial censuses will diminish and may eventually disappear.”
Statistics Commission - Final Report: 2001

What makes this campaign stand out?

How do you make statistics interesting?

• Hold the first investigative Overview and Scrutiny hearing in local government
• “This Committee’s investigation is exactly the kind of exercise the government had in mind when it was establishing the new agenda for modernising local government.”
  Tony Travers, Director Greater London Group, London School of Economics
• Make reports accessible to the audience you need to influence
• Communicate technical issues in terms of people and resources rather than statistics
• Persistence pays

And Finally...

“Len Cook, the National Statistician, announces that he will resign as head of the ONS in 2005 after controversies over errors and revisions in key economic data.”
Times Online, 28 December 2004